Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
