A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
